Terrorist threat in Amsterdam: tip-off was credible, says police

Geplaatst op 16/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

Last week’s terrorist alert in an Amsterdam suburb was based on a “very serious tip-off”, says the Dutch capital’s Chief of Police in Monday’s issue of the daily De Volkskrant. According to Bernard Welten, the anonymous female caller knew details about the 2004 Madrid terrorist attacks that “usually, no-one knows about”. In addition he believed that during the call, the woman (calling from Brussels and speaking in Dutch with a French accent) consulted a second person”. “There was no doubt that is was a very serious tip-off”, Welten told the newspaper.

The Chief of Police is quoted as saying that the caller provided (and correctly spelled) the names of three men which were said to be on their way to Amsterdam with explosives and had the intention to attack two large stores.

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Canadahar, Helmandshire and Uruzdam

Geplaatst op 15/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

Er ligt een uitdaging voor Generaal-majoor Mart de Kruif, commandant van alle ISAF-troepen in de zes zuidelijke provincies van Afghanistan.  In de perceptie van sommigen op zijn hoofdkwartier op Kandahar Airfield (ISAF Regional Command (South)) en een aantal Amerikaanse ‘nieuwkomers’ in het zuiden is er sprake van een zooitje. Ieder land doet maar wat raak in ‘zijn’ provincie – dat is het beeld dat naar voren komt in het artikel In South Afghanistan, U.S. Troops Face New Tests in de gezaghebbende Amerikaanse krant The Washington Post. Wat te denken van deze passage:

“When NATO forces were deployed to the south in 2006, the Canadians were assigned the province of Kandahar, the British got Helmand, and the Dutch were sent to Uruzgan. The three nations developed their own battle plans and agendas for development. They established provincial reconstruction teams that report to their capitals, not the NATO regional command at the Kandahar airport.

People at the regional command now joke that the three provinces should be renamed Canadahar, Helmandshire and Uruzdam.

“It’s a totally dysfunctional way of fighting a war,” said a U.S. officer in the south. “You’ve got each of these guys doing their own thing in their provinces with very little coordination.”

The fractured approach is a result of demands imposed by NATO members as a condition of sending troops to Afghanistan. Each nation wanted its own chunk of the action so it could show off what it had accomplished. ”

Overigens zit er tenminste één fout in deze passage: de troepen in de verschillende zuidelijke provincies worden niet aangestuurd door hun hoofdsteden, maar wel degelijk door generaal De Kruif en zijn staf. Imagoprobleem? Of is er meer aan de hand? Je zou haast zeggen: “Mart: aantrekken, die teugels”.

Zie ook: Verliezen doen we zeker niet in Afghanistan, interview met Generaal-majoor De Kruif

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The Economist: Uruzgan for beginners

Geplaatst op 14/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

The British weekly The Economist this week published an article about Dutch NATO activities in Uruzgan Province, Afghanistan. Interesting, as not too many non-Dutch media report from the province. However a few remarks could be made (apart from the fact that The Economist uses yet another and unusual transcription of Tarin Kowt, the province capital. It goes for ‘Tirin Khot’). On a more serious note:

– The Economist writes that the Netherlands deployed 2000 troops to the province. That’s incorrect: there have never been more than 1000-1300 Dutch military personnel deployed there.
– The weekly writes that Uruzgan was the birthplace of the Taliban leader Mullah Omar. That’s not correct either. Omar was born in Kandahar province, but his family did move to Uruzgan province at a later stage.
– The Economist compares casualty numbers among the Dutch with those of the British and Canadian forces in neighbouring Helmand and Kandahar provinces. This comparison is meaningless, as the activities of the Taliban and other armed groups have been far more intensive in the latter two provinces. Since 2006, there have been only two major Taliban offensives in Uruzgan province, both of those in 2007.
– The ‘ink-spot’ approach cited by The Economist is not a Dutch invention – it’s a standard counterinsurgency strategy, first developed by British troops in Malaya during the 1948-1968 Malayan Emergency.
– Dutch forces did not fight “a long battle” in the Baluchi Valley in late 2007. There was a major battle in June of that year, in the adjacent Chora Valley. In fact, in the eyes of the Dutch military that particular battle finally laid to rest “the ghost of Srebrenica” cited by The Economist – it was the largest battle the Dutch had fought since the Korean War of the 1950s. In three days, using all available combat troops and with massive air and artillery support they defeated a large force of Taliban and foreign fighters.
– An interesting aspect of the article is that it does provide statistics for access to education and health care. In official Afghan surveys, Uruzgan is the only province of the country where no figures are available, making it a statistical ‘black hole’ of the country. The reason, as given by the authorities: conducting a survey was impossible due to the insecurity in the province.

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Special Forces op halve kracht terug naar Uruzgan

Geplaatst op 14/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

Over de inzet van het Korps Commandotroepen (KCT) en de special forces van het Korps Mariniers (KMARNS) worden om begrijpelijke redenen weinig mededelingen gedaan. In Uruzgan waren deze eerder actief onder de naam ‘Vipers’ (adders), voluit: de Special Forces Task Group Viper. Hun aantal werd geschat op 185 man.  In de nieuwe Kamerbrief ‘Voortgang missie in Uruzgan‘ staat dat de Vipers eind 2007 zijn teruggetrokken. Maar het KCT en de KMARNS komen terug, zij het met minder dan de helft van het oorspronkelijke aantal en, voor het eerst, onder direct bevel van ISAF en niet zoals de Vipers onder bevel van de (Nederlandse) commandant van de Task Force Uruzgan. De Kamerbrief hierover: “Deze inzet is gericht op het uitvoeren van verkenningen, het verzamelen van inlichtingen en het aangrijpen en arresteren van Talibanleiders en insurgents die zich bezig houden met het plegen van aanslagen en het plaatsen van IED’s. De militairen zullen door het hoofdkwartier van ISAF worden aangestuurd. Zij zullen voornamelijk optreden in Uruzgan, maar kunnen in voorkomend geval ook daarbuiten worden ingezet”.
De positie van de Nederlandse Special Forces in Uruzgan wordt daarmee dezelfde als die van de de Australische Special Operations Task Group in Uruzgan, 330 man sterk, en nooit (tijdelijk) teruggetrokken geweest. De vraag rijst dus: “waarom waren de Vipers eigenlijk teruggetrokken?” M’n theewater vertelt me dat dat simpelweg komt door overbelasting (lees: personeelsgebrek). Want de in de Kamerbrief genoemde reden voor hun inzet (“verbetering van de inlichtingenpositie”) is sinds het begin van hun operaties in 2006 nooit veranderd. Onbekend is of de nieuwe en kleinere groep Special Forces ook de naam ‘Vipers’ zal dragen.

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Terrorist threat in Amsterdam: all suspects released

Geplaatst op 13/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

All seven people suspected of preparing (or helping to prepare) a terrorist attack in Amsterdam have been released and the event now appears to qualify as a ‘False Alert’.

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Afghanistan conference gets lengthy name

Geplaatst op 13/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

Brace yourselves for the name that The Netherlands has come up with for an international conference on Afghanistan, to be held on March 31st in The Hague: “International Conference on Afghanistan: security, development and diplomacy in a regional context“.  But in a letter to Parliament, a slightly different name is used: ‘International Conference on Afghanistan: A Comprehensive Strategy in a Regional Context‘. Fortunately, ‘Afghanistan Conference 2009‘ appears to be OK, too.  On Monday, a dedicated website will be launched: www.afghanistanconference2009.nl.

Radio Netherlands Worldwide will also launch a special website in several languages dedicated to the conference.

Here is the list of countries and organisations that have been invited to attend the one-day meeting:

Countries

1. Afghanistan
2. Albania
3. Australia
4. Austria
5. Azerbaijan
6. Bahrain
7. Bangladesh
8. Belarus
9. Belgium
10. Bosnia and Herzegovina
11. Brasil
12. Brunei
13. Bulgaria
14. Canada
15. Chili
16. China
17. Colombia
18. Croatia
19. Cyprus
20. Czech Republic
21. Denmark
22. Egypt
23. Estonia
24. Finland
25. France
26. Georgia
27. Germany
28. Greece
29. Hungary
30. Iceland
31. India
32. Indonesia
33. Iran
34. Ireland
35. Italy
36. Japan
37. Jordan
38. Kazakhstan
39. Kuwait
40. Kyrgyzstan
41. Libya
42. Latvia
43. Lithuania
44. Luxemburg
45. Macedonia
46. Malaysia
47. Malta
48. Netherlands
49. New Zealand
50. Norway
51. Oman
52. Pakistan
53. Poland
54. Portugal
55. Qatar
56. Russia
57. Romania
58. Saudi Arabia
59. Singapore
60. Slovakia
61. Slovenia
62. South Korea
63. Spain
64. Sweden
65. Switzerland
66. Tajikistan
67. Turkey
68. Turkmenistan
69. Ukraine
70. UAE
71. United Kingdom
72. United States of America
73. Uzbekistan

Organisations

74. Asian Development Bank
75. European Union (Presidency, High Representative, Commission)
76. IMF
77. NATO
78. Organisation of the Islamic Conference
79. Worldbank
80. Islamic Development Bank
81. UN Mr Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations
82. UN Special Representative Mr Kai Eide

Observers

83. ACBAR (Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief)
84. Aga Khan Foundation
85. European Parliament
86. International Red Cross
87. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
88. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
89. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

(Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 13 March 2009)

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Terrorist threat in Amsterdam: five suspects released

Geplaatst op 13/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

Of the seven people arrested in connection with a terrorist threat in Amsterdam, five have been released a day after their arrest, the Public Prosecutor’s Office has announced. Of the remaining two, only one is still being questioned about the reported threat to conduct suicide attacks in shopping malls, the other one is suspect of common criminal activities. Unspecified ‘others’ are still being questioned, but according to the statement, the attention now focuses on a as yet unidentified person who made the call from the Belgian capital Brussels that triggered the police and secret service action.

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Amsterdam terrorist threat: inquiry continues

Geplaatst op 13/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

The Dutch authorities say the inquiry into a possible terrorist threat will continue; further arrests are not excluded. On Thursday, seven suspects with a dual Dutch and Moroccan citizenship were arrested after an anonymous tip-off from a caller in Brussels, Belgium.  The intended targets, including an IKEA outlet, and a Mediamarkt megastore in a South-Eastern suburb of Amsterdam were evacuated on Thursday and are expected to stay closed would re-opened on Friday. No details were given about a third presumed target.

The office of the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism (NCTb) said late on Thursday that the arrests would not lead to a change in the overall terrorist threat assessment, which currently is defined as ‘substantial’ – the second-highest level.

During a press briefing, more details were given about the family ties of one of the apprehended suspects and a person involved in the 2004 terrorist attacks in Spain.  The Amsterdam Police Commissioner, Bernard Welten, said the unnamed person died shortly after the Madrid bombings “due to a suicide action”. This is likely to refer to the events of 3 april 2004, when a group of cornered terrorists blew themselves up in an apartment in the Madrid suburb of Leganés.

The names of the dead terrorists published at the time were: Jamal Ahmidan (‘the Tunesian’), Serhane ben Abdelmajid Fakhet (‘the Chinese’), Allekema Lamari, Mohammed Oulad Akcha, Rachid Oulad Akcha, Abdennabi Koujaa and Asri Rifaat Anouar. The first two were believed to be ringleaders of the March 11th terrorist attacks in Madrid, which killed 191 people. The explosives with which they blew themselves up were of the same type as used on March 11th: Goma-2 Eco, commercially produced in Spain.

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Breaking news: suspected terrorists arrested; link to Madrid bombings

Geplaatst op 12/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

The Dutch capital Amsterdam may have been the intended target of a large-scale terrorist attack. Police announced on Thursday evening that seven persons “with a Moroccan background” have been arrested in the course of the day. One of those arrested was said to have family ties with a person involved in the March 11th 2004 terrorist attacks in Madrid.

The arrests followed an anonymous tip-off detailing names, addresses and intended targets, which according to the police was received by midnight on Wednesday. The Dutch Secret Service AIVD was immediately alerted and it was established that the tip-off was made from the Belgian capital Brussels, using a cellphone equipped with a prepaid card.

The police said that the tip-off suggested that at least three men equipped with explosives would attack three large shops in a southeastern suburb of Amsterdam, including an outlet of the international furniture chain IKEA. All shops were immediately closed, and the entire shopping area (known as the ‘ArenA Boulevard’) was cordoned off.

When asked by journalists, the authorities declined to go into details as to the link between one of those apprehended and the 2004 Madrid bombings. Those arrested were six men and one women, ranging in age from 19 to 64. The police has conducted several house searches in the Netherlands, at least one other search is reported to have taken place in Brussels.

In earlier publications and statements, the AIVD has said that “some 10 to 15” terrorist networks are constantly monitored in The Netherlands.  These are assumed to include the Moroccan GICM (linked to the Madrid attacks) and the ‘umbrella’ organisation AQIM (‘Al Qaeda in the Maghreb’).

If the information provided by the Dutch police is correct, this would be the first time in recent years that a large-scale jihadist attack has been thwarted thanks to a timely tip-off “from within”.

For background information on radicalisation and jihadist networks, see the following reports of the AIVD:
– The radical dawa in transition, The rise of Islamic neoradicalism in the Netherlands (2007)
– Violent jihad in the Netherlands (2006)
– From dawa to jihad – the various threats from radical Islam to the democratic legal order (2004)

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2008: forse toename vijandelijkheden in Afghanistan

Geplaatst op 08/03/2009 door Hans de Vreij

Op de website van het al eerder vermelde Wikileaks staat een NAVO-document: ‘Metrics Brief 2007-2008 / Security Summary 2008′. Een paar opvallende cijfers:

– In 2008 zijn de activiteiten van Taliban en andere strijdgroepen met 33% toegenomen.
– Er kwamen 35% meer buitenlandse militairen om (ISAF en OEF).
– Het aantal burgerdoden steeg met 46%. 80% daarvan door toedoen van de Taliban c.s..
– Doodsoorzaak #1: ‘bermbommen’ (Improvised Explosive Devices, IED’s). Gebruik toegenomen met 27%; gelijkertijd zijn er door Afghanen zelf ook 21% meer bermbommen (tijdig) aangegeven.
– Sterke toename van beschietingen op vliegtuigen (+67%). De statistieken vermelden niet welk soort (luchtdoel)wapens werden gebruikt.
– Sinds juli 2008 aanzienlijke toename van de capaciteiten van het Afghaanse leger en overige veiligheidstroepen.
– Bij een landelijk onderzoek naar toegang tot onderwijs en gezondheidszorg is Uruzgan de enige provincie van heel Afghanistan waarvan cijfers ontbreken (bron: Afghaanse overheid). Oorzaak: extremely poor security & high risk.

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